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You won’t stumble into high-priced winners, but hey—winning sure beats losing, no matter what the payoff. Favorites win 35% of the time in the Kentucky Derby, a success rate that more or less holds true for all other North American horse races. Bet on every favorite over the course of 12 races, and you’ll likely pick four or five winners, sufficient to make you a handicapping hero. Another important factor to consider when placing this type of bet is the odds.

Now, instead of the Mariners having to win the game by more than 1 ½ runs, they have to win the game by more than 2 ½ runs. So, with a standard run line, as long as they win the game by 2 or more runs (more than 1 ½), you’d win that bet. But now, they have to win the game by 3 or more runs (more than 2 ½). If they win the game by 2 runs now, they will lose with this alternate run line bet.

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